NIGERIA’S 2027 PRESIDENTIAL PAIRINGS: EXPLORING THE TINUBU/SHETTIMA, OBI/DATTI, ATIKU/OBI, JONATHAN/KWANKWASO CANDIDACY OPTIONS [friday Blues 1-007]

 12 September 2025

friday Blues 1-007

NIGERIA’S 2027 PRESIDENTIAL PAIRINGS: EXPLORING THE TINUBU/SHETTIMA, OBI/DATTI, ATIKU/OBI, JONATHAN/KWANKWASO CANDIDACY OPTIONS
- by Noble Dr. Uzodinma Adirieje (KSJI)

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This week, I’m looking at Nigeria's 2027 potential Presidential Pairings. With the 2027 presidential contest still two years away, Nigeria’s political chessboard is already crowded. Four ticket permutations—Tinubu/Shettima, Obi/Datti, Atiku/Obi, and Jonathan/Kwankwaso—capture contrasting strategies: incumbency and continuity, youthful reformism coupled with experienced partners, broad opposition coalitions, and a nostalgic-plus-regional balancing act. Each pairing has strengths, glaring weaknesses, and varying plausibility as a real campaign force.

Tinubu/Shettima: incumbency, continuity, and the politics of risk
President Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) moved early: party stakeholders publicly endorsed Tinubu for a 2027 re-run, signaling that the ruling formation intends to trade on incumbency and continuity. Incumbent campaigns benefit from party machinery, state-level influence, and the ability to point to economic choices—such as subsidy removal and currency reforms—as bold (if painful) reform programs.

But Tinubu/Shettima face real headwinds. The administration’s reforms, while drawing investor praise, have sharpened cost-of-living pressures and kept insecurity near the top of voter grievances—material vulnerabilities that opposition narratives will exploit. Internally, the Shettima vice-presidential question has provoked unease in some APC quarters: regional actors and critics have publicly debated whether the ticket’s religious and geographic optics are optimal, producing friction ahead of a demanding re-election campaign.

Obi/Datti: youth appeal meets technocratic steadiness — but is it unified?
The Peter Obi phenomenon in 2023 reshaped voter expectations: his messaging energized urban youth and parts of the South-East. Pairing Obi with Datti Baba-Ahmed (often called simply “Datti”)—the senator and 2023 running mate who has been publicly associated with Obi’s movement—would attempt to combine Obi’s political brand with a partner seen as disciplined and policy-oriented. Datti himself has commented on his relationship with Obi and signalled openness but has also criticized some coalition moves—suggesting he will not be an automatic or uncritical partner.

The biggest question for an Obi/Datti ticket is institutional muscle. Obi’s strongest energy has been grassroots and youth-driven; converting enthusiasm into nationwide party structure and inter-regional coalitions requires compromises that risk diluting his brand. Additionally, Labour Party internal dynamics and the jockeying of other opposition platforms could complicate who legally fields a joint ticket or which party becomes home to their ambitions.

Atiku/Obi: a fusion that could unsettle the status quo — if egos and logistics align
A formal Atiku Abubakar–Peter Obi arrangement would be one of the most consequential opposition alignments: Atiku brings decades of national political networks and PDP experience; Obi brings populist legitimacy among young, urban voters. Recent reporting shows opposition leaders are exploring coalitions designed to prevent a rout by the ruling party, with bodies such as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) serving as potential umbrellas.

Yet coalitions are messy. Obi has repeatedly insisted on his independence in different contexts, and Atiku is a tenacious contender with his own base—melding two strong personalities and ambitions into a single, functioning ticket requires careful negotiation over leadership, policy platform, and party structure. If they solve the “who leads and why” puzzle and present a clear economic and security alternative to voters, their union could be electorally potent; if not, it risks fragmentation that advantages the incumbent.

Jonathan/Kwankwaso: symbolic balance and the limits of comeback politics
A Goodluck Jonathan–Rabiu Kwankwaso ticket evokes an older generation of leaders attempting to reassert relevance through cross-regional alliances: Jonathan’s South-South base and statesman image; Kwankwaso’s appeal among certain Northern constituencies and the “Kwankwasiya” movement. Speculation and informal talks have circulated about such a collaboration, and Jonathan’s name frequently surfaces in rumor and discourse about a potential comeback.

But on plausibility, this pairing looks the most speculative. Jonathan has publicly denied planning an active presidential bid in recent fact-checks and media reports, and Kwankwaso has faced organizational and party setbacks that complicate efforts to mount a credible nationwide campaign. In short: name recognition exists, but institutional readiness and clear intent are weaker than in the other permutations.

What the permutations tell us about 2027
Three themes cut across these options. First, coalition-building will be decisive: Nigeria’s size and diversity mean no single region or demographic can deliver victory alone. Second, performance politics—how voters judge the economy, security, and governance—will shape whether incumbency is a liability or an advantage. Third, institutional anchors matter: personal brands are influential, but party machines, legal nominations, and internal unity determine whether a promising pairing becomes an effective campaign.

About 18 months to this crucial election, Tinubu/Shettima currently have the clearest path to fielding a ticket due to party endorsement and incumbency, but they are vulnerable to economic discontent and intra-party debates. Obi/Datti or Atiku/Obi could produce the most dynamic opposition ticket if they reconcile leadership and party mechanics. Jonathan/Kwankwaso, while intriguing on paper, is the least certain unless both figures decisively commit and secure platforms that can mobilize across the federation.

As 2027 draws closer, expect alliances, denials, endorsements, and legal manoeuvres to intensify. For observers and voters alike, the key question will be whether these permutations generate coherent policy visions for a country wrestling with deep economic and security challenges—or whether they remain contests of personalities and patronage.

Noble Dr. Uzodinma Adirieje is a distinguished and multidimensional communicator whose work as a writer, columnist, blogger, reviewer, editor, and author bridges the intersections of global health, sustainable development, human rights, climate justice, and governance. He holds a number of chieftaincy titles including ‘High Chief Ugwumba I of Amaruru’, and ‘Ahaejiejemba Ndigbo Lagos State’.